We use the outlook to help inform our longterm business strategies and investment plans. What if the world continues on its current path, with no additional changes. The world energy council has been developing and using world energy scenarios for over a decade to support its global member network of energy leaders, to clarify complexity, and to realise new opportunities for successfully managing global energy transition. The world energy outlook 2018 examines future patterns of a changing global energy system at a time of increasing uncertainties and finds that major transformations are underway for the global energy sector, from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables, upheavals in oil production and globalisation of natural gas markets. Instead, we see this publication as an opportunity to identify and discuss the main energy issues that could arise. The 2018 edition provides updated analysis to show what the latest data, technology trends and policy announcements might mean for the energy sector to 2040. The energy systems effect on the environment environmental stress to planet earth has stimulated a quest for innovation in the energy system on a global scale. Energy market projections are uncertain because the events that shape future developments in technology, demographic changes, economic trends, and resource availability that drive energy use are fluid. Getting the prices right zworld energy outlook 2000 zworld energy outlook 2001 insights. Energyrelated co 2 emissions by region china overtakes the us as the worlds biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the oecd in 2030 0 3 6 9 12 15 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 gigatonnes of co 2 united states china rest of nonoecd rest of oecd. At the same time, we need to adapt and change to play our part in achieving the transition to a low carbon energy system.
Eia, international energy outlook 2017 6 32% 31% 15% 15% 12% 3% 10% %400 3% 14% 25%. This raises important challenges but also opportunities and. The ieo2017 is the first ed ition of this report to include mo del results through 2050, which are available on the ieo page of the eia website. Instead, it provides a set of scenarios that explore different possible futures, the actions or inactions that bring them about and the interconnections between different parts of the system. Results from india energy model simi thambi1, anindya bhatacharya1, oliver fricko2 india currently ranks as one of the top energy consumers in the world. In the high economic growth case, world energy use in 2050 is about 1,090 quadrillion btu. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry 7 trends four trends were identified as determinant for the oil and gas industry when the years that separate us from 2040 are analyzed. Share of energy sources in world primary demand by scenario. Pdf versions and powerpoint slide packsof the charts, maps and graphs, plus an excel workbook of the data. With the release of the growing role of minerals for a low carbon future, the world bank is contributing towards ensuring that this topic is given its rightful place in the world bank. It also outlines an integrated way to meet multiple. Our outlook is based on contributions from hundreds of mckinsey experts from around the world, from fields including oil and gas, automotive, renewable energy, and basic materials. Rising demand for mobility and reliance on more difficult and costly sources of supply keep pressure on oil prices. Our outlook is based on contributions from hundreds of mckinsey experts from around the world, from fields including oil and gas, automotive, renewable energy.
As a result of higher energy consumption, global energy related co2 emissions increased to 33. Database description the world co2 emissions from fuel combustion database contains annual co2 emissions from fuel combustion and related indicators for over 140 countries and regional aggregates. The global energy perspective reference case provides our view on how the energy transition will unfold. International energy agency the international energy agency iea, an autonomous agency, was established in november1974. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energy related emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. Any such attempt is doomed to fail the uncertainty surrounding the energy transition is here to stay.
The aeo2019 reference case represents eias best a ssessment of how u. For instance, the reference case projection assumes improvement in known energy production, delivery, and consumption technology trends. A perspective to 2040 the outlook for energy is exxonmobil s view of energy demand and supply through 2040. Energy outlook aids our understanding of that uncertainty by considering a number of different. Access to energy services is critical for advancing human development, furthering social inclusion of the poorest and most vulnerable in society and to meeting many of the sdgs. Through this global network, we are able to incorporate a. The weo is prepared by the imf staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by executive directors following their discussion of the report on march 21, 2019.
World energy outlook 2011 international energy forum ief. For many years the outlook has helped inform exxonmobil s longterm business strategies, investment plans and research programs. World energy outlook series zworld energy outlook 1998 zworld energy outlook 1999 insights. A perspective to 2040 the 2019 outlook for energy is exxonmobil s latest view of energy demand and supply through 2040. The principal authors were hannah daly and molly a. Specifically, eias shortterm energy outlook data browser estimates that utility 4 eia. Eias international energy outlook 2017 ieo2017 presents an assessment of longterm world energy markets. Energy outlook watch the bp energy outlook 2017 video, containing our projections of longterm energy trends to 2035. The value of the outlook is not in trying to predict the future. Energy access outlook 2017 world energy outlook special report. Global trends and outlook for hydrogen 5 global trends and outlook for hydrogen 1. The wem is the principal tool used to generate detailed sectorbysector and. International energy agency world energy outlook 2006 dr. Energy agency iea and, notably, the guidance from tim gould and his colleagues on the world energy outlook team.
Energy information administration international energy outlook 1 executive summary in the international energy outlook 2017 ieo2017 reference case, total world energy consumption rises from 575 quadrillion british thermal units btu. The evolving energy landscape in india opportunities for. The world energy outlook does not provide a forecast of what will happen. World energy outlook 2018 global trends, outlooks fuel oil, gas, coal energy efficiency and renewables based on scenarios to 2040 simulation model, detailed data current policy scenario cps new policy scenario nps sustainable development scenario sds. It highlights not only the individual components of the offshore picture, but also the synergies between them, and underscores the strengths of the ieas allof energy approach. International energy outlook 2017 activate capital. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energyrelated emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. The energy outlook is produced to aid bps analysis and decisionmaking, and is published as a contribution to the wider debate. We focus on the us eias 2017 international energy outlook because the 2018 edition includes limited data for a limited number of countries. Worlds fastest growing energy market for the next two decades energy landscape india is the third largest energy consumer in the world and accounted for 5. This year, we have identified a common theme about the importance of governments.
This study was prepared by the world energy outlook weo team in the directorate of sustainability, technology and outlooks sto in cooperation with other directorates and offices of the agency. The world energy outlook 1998, based on a new world energy model, considers energy demand and supply for ten world regions over the period to 2020. Some parts of the energy sector, led by electricity, undergo rapid transformations. In all the scenarios considered, world gdp more than doubles by 2040 driven by increasing prosperity in fastgrowing developing economies. The outlook again brings into sharp focus just how fast the worlds energy systems are changing, and how the dual challenge of more energy with fewer. Annual energy outlook 2019 energy information administration. The energy outlook considers the energy transition from three different viewpoints sectors, regions and fuels and by exploring a number of different scenarios. Projections in the annual energy outlook 2019 aeo2019 are not predictions of what will happen, but rather modeled projections of what may happen given certain assumptions and methodologies. This years energy outlook provides fresh insight into these trends and many more. Fatih birol chief economist international energy agency oecdiea 2006 the reference scenario.
World energy outlook 2018 international energy agency. The international energy outlook 2019 provides longterm world energy projections 7. The shift to a more servicesoriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in china, the worlds largest energy consumer, subject of a detailed focus in this outlook. Energy information administration, international energy outlook 2018 reference case. In the evolving transition scenario, world gdp more than doubles by 2040, driven by.
Energy information administration eia of the outlook for international energy markets through 2035. Construction means that building work is ongoing at the site. Since 1993, the iea has provided medium to longterm energy projections using the world energy model wem a largescale simulation model designed to replicate how energy markets function. The worlds actions today will be crucial to create a sustainable energy system. Assessing todays supplies to fuel tomorrows growth zworld energy outlook 2002 2nd edition issued zworld energy outlook 2003.
Outlook for energy the outlook for energy is exxonmobils latest view of energy demand and supply through 2040. It does not aim to forecast the future, but provides a way of exploring different possible futures, the levers that bring them about and the interactions that arise across a complex energy system. What if we reflect todays policy intentions and targets. The individuals and organizations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgments contained herein. With indias population and gdp expected to grow in the future, energy demand will see a.
The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energy related emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices this years edition updates the outlooks for all fuels, technologies and regions, based on the latest market data, policy initiatives and cost trends. Energy matters to everyone and we all play a role in shaping its future. World energy outlook 2020 and global electricity investment. Our aim is not to foretell the future the uncertainties are too great for that. For many years the outlook for energy has helped inform exxonmobils longterm business strategies, investment plans, and research programs. World primary energy demand global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms oil coal gas. Iea energy efficiency 2018 and world energy outlook 2018. Sep 09, 2018 world energy consumption by energy source quadrillion btu energy use rises for all fuels other than coal petroleum and natural gas dominate the outlook unless technology surprises source. World energy outlook offshore energy production, how they are today and how they might evolve in various scenarios in the future. It assesses whether the frameworks and strategies put in place by governments. But the outlook is only one source among many when considering the future of global energy markets. Oil demand flattens out in the 2030s, and coal use edges lower. Transforming the global energy system would permit affordable, and universal, energy access, increase energy security, and diversify energy supply. With indias population and gdp expected to grow in the future, energy demand will see a significant rise and with that.
The shift to a more servicesoriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in china, the world s largest energy consumer, subject of a detailed focus in this outlook. World s fastest growing energy market for the next two decades energy landscape india is the third largest energy consumer in the world and accounted for 5. Between 2015 and 2040, world energy consumption increases by 28% in the ieo2017 reference case, with more than half of the increase. The world energy outlook weo is the gold standard of longterm energy analysis. Database documentation 2019 edition international energy agency 2. The world energy outlook does not forecast what will happen. Assessing todays supplies to fuel tomorrows growth zworld energy outlook 2002 2nd edition issued zworld energy outlook 2003 insights. This is the stated policies scenario steps what if we meet sustainable energy goals in full. This years edition updates the outlooks for all fuels. The world energy outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of.
The international energy agencys annual benchmark for tracking energy investment, world energy investment 2019, provides a full picture of todays capital flows and what they might mean for tomorrows energy sector. The world energy outlook 2015 weo2015 will present updated projections for the evolution of the global energy system to 2040, based on the latest data and market developments, as well as detailed insights on the prospects for fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency and analysis on trends in co2 emissions and fossil. Fatigue, shattered expectations, disappointment and despair drove away all but the. Pdf versions and powerpoint slide packs of the charts, maps and graphs, plus an excel workbook of the data.
It was designed and directed by laura cozzi, head of the weo energy demand outlook division. Drawing on the latest data on energy markets and technology trends, this years world energy outlook the gold standard of longterm energy analysis provides detailed analyses of these fundamental issues to 2040, covering all fuels, technologies and regions. How important are plastics for the future of oil demand. World energy outlook 2018 global trends, outlooks fuel oil, gas, coal energy efficiency and renewables based on scenarios to 2040. Operating means plants that are producing electricity, even if this is substantially below maximum capacity. This is where the world energy outlook weo comes in. Rather the value of the energy outlook is in providing a structure and discipline. Bp considers the scenarios in the outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming. Through this global network, we are able to incorporate a diverse set of views into one consensus. Ultimately, the path to secure a better future depends on pursuing a positive, inclusive, economically, socially. The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the united states, cementing its position as the biggest oil and gas producer in the world even at lower prices. Shortterm energy outlook steo forecast highlights global liquid fuels although all market outlooks are subject to many risks, the april edition of eias shortterm energy outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease covid19 on energy markets are still evolving. The aeo is developed using the national energy modeling system nems, an integrated model that. Ieej8 outlook 2019 reference to 2050 opec9 world oil outlook 2018 reference to 2040 shell10 shell scenarios 2018 sky to 2100 us eia11 international energy outlook 2017 reference to 2050 note.
Database documentation 2019 edition international energy agency transformation processes flow short name definition transformation processes tottranf transformation processes comprise the conversion of primary forms of energy to secondary and further transformation e. Global ev outlook 2018 was developed and prepared by the energy technology policy etp division of the directorate of sustainability, technology and outlooks sto of the international energy agency iea, under the direction of dave turk, acting director of sto. Despite this increase in energy demand, around twothirds of the worlds population in 2040 still live in countries where average energy consumption per head is. Electricity is the special focus of the 2018 edition. The international energy outlook 2010 ieo2010 presents an assessment by the u. International energy agency, world energy outlook 2017 era of oil is not yet over change in global oil demand by sector if tight oil plateaus 2020s and nonopec production growth as a whole slows, reliance on the middle east grows and the need for largescale oil investment continues, even with electric cars. The graphics in this presen tation focus on projections through 2040. In the reference case, world energy consumption totals 911 quadrillion british thermal units btu in 2050287 quadrillion btu in the oecd countries and 624 quadrillion btu in the nonoecd countries. India accounted for 11% of the global coal consumption in 2016.
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